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How Bad is The Lending Crisis? I went to your very interesting meeting yesterday at which Joe Brown founder of Milestone Mortgage who walked us through the start and what he sees as the finish in the current lending crisis. The following comes from notes I took. After the crash in the tech sector and 9-11 our economy was in the realm of hurt. The Fed started cutting the discount rate and continued cutting prior to the discount rate reduced over 5% over a relatively short period of time. What resulted was lots more people buying homes se the cost of money was less expensive. Out came home buyers – these folks were just about everywhere. The cost of money was low and some lenders saw a chance that looked too good being true. Not only were buyers everywhere but they were driving in the tariff of homes in many markets throughout the country. What came next was obviously a gap. Prices were skyrocketing while wages were relatively stable. Lenders saw another opportunity – home equity loans. In markets where home prices were going up more than 25% a year those who bought homes saw the value of the homes 50% or higher higher. Many saw the ease of getting home equity loans being a means to pay for off card debt or spend money on rental property and even purchase a boat or a whole new car for cash. Can you smell what was over the horizon yet? Builders were putting homes up all on the place. Lenders yet again saw a massive opportunity to generate money. They started loosening their standards for lending. No job? No savings? Need a house? No problem! Stated ome loans no money down loans creative 100% financing adjustable rate loans interest only loans 40 year loans – you name it someone had it. See any problems yet? In 2004 69% of Americans owned a home. This was the best rate of ownership ever. Here is really a hint on the firstly many problems. Although mortgage ers have a good little bit of regulation from federal assuring authorities mortgage brokers had very little oversight. These creative loans which probably should not happen to be made were bundled the loans and sold to investors. Although I stated that mortgage brokers aren’t very regulated they were not the only real problem. If there weren’t lenders to provide these loans the brokers would have zero spot . Greed got the very best of many people. Not a great deal of people are make payment on price. One really nasty result's someone going on the closing table and discovering that their supply of money dried up overnight. All of the sudden certain markets stabilized. Then they went backwards. The bubble burst. Markets in California Arizona Colorado and Florida saw housing prices decrease. Not only did the drop nonetheless they dropped like rocks in a few areas. With houses not worth as much the creative loans were worth less. Lenders couldn’t sell their bundled loans for that value from the loans. Lenders were selling loans in a loss – they owed money at closing. This was the main cause with the collapse and lenders started going from business. The media got wind of with this making it it look like we were built with a national disaster on our hands. Enter the truth. Of the approximately $10 trillion of mortgage debt in our country simply a bit is affected. Of the 6000000 clients who had bought with this creative lending period only around 15% were affected through the bad lending practices. Is the crisis over? No it isn’t. There is likely to be more lenders going under and much more foreclosures in several markets. However our economy is quite strong. We have low unemployment and strong job growth. Many economists start to determine the U.S. all through this difficult period just fine. Private equity is flowing into the troubled lending industry. Countrywide got a $2 billion infusion from of America. The Fed is staying beyond this except to drop the discount rate slightly. That is often a great thing. If we got involved in a Federal bail-out like back in the 80s throughout the S&L crisis it might result in inflation which may lead to a recession. So what’s up now for borrowers? Those with bad credit little or no ome with no savings probably won’t be buying houses. People who can put 20% or even more down and who have a good credit rating will continue to acquire loans. Markets will correct and investors will use and commence buying “cheap” properties. Homes will yet again be affordable for regular house buyers as well. By the way just for the main reason that media has created the nation's housing marketplace look as it is within terrible shape it isn’t. As a whole it isn’t healthy but pockets are doing great. Many markets like Austin and San Antonio can be healthy even now and they also look to stay so. What it appears like is the very fact that we've got another 6-9 months of problems before many markets turn around. Will all of it be roses after that? Probably not but we won’t be feeling a lot pain. - looking for loan
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